Investment Ideas Bi-Monthly – Monday Apr. 18, 2016
Investment Ideas
(Monday – Apr. 18, 2016)
A bi-monthly forecast and investment ideas covering a range of technical and fundamental analysis securities to assist you in when to buy and when to sell a specific security.
This is informational only and is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, but a guide to start the research process before making any stock purchase or a sell recommendation.
The information provided is based on timely fundamental, technical analysis or both. Technical analysis can change hour by hour; tick by tick so keep that in mind as to the timeliness of the information especially if you are reading this days or even weeks later.
The market trend as of this past Friday Mar. 15 was Bullish, the price trend has moved Upward though the 20 day moving average and 20 has moved above the 50 day average .
The primary trend is Up over the past five days, the longer trend (two weeks) is Up. MACD is Positive. The S&P 500 is positive YTD at 2.47 %.
Futures are down this morning due to weakness in the Oil prices, take a wait and see attitude. Things might change later in the day.
Wilshire index Price: (Total Wilshire 5000 value divided by 5000)
Apr 15 $4.293
Apr 8 $4.214
Mar 31 $4.245
Mar 24 $4.183
Mar 18 $4.219
Mar 11 $4.161
Mar 04 $4.122
Feb 26 $3.999
Feb 19 $3.925
Wilshire 5000 Index
Jan 02 2016 – $4.234
MACD is a simple momentum indicator. Buy signals occur when the black line crosses over the red line. Sell signals happen when the black line crosses beneath the red line.
3 types of analysis.
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Technical analysis is the study of past market prices and trading volume. It will keep you trading with the market, rather than against it.
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Fundamental analysis is the study of business quality and value. It will help you pinpoint great businesses at great prices… and avoid bad businesses at inflated prices.
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Sentiment analysis is the study of the opinions of market participants. You can use it to make sure you’re not standing with the crowd just as it’s about to get dumped overboard.
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Market Watch
Trailing Stop Loss
Don’t forget to place a trailing stop loss on all your positions as you make the purchases. Depending on your risk tolerance place a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 25 percent for mid to large cap stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds. Consider even large percentage for small cap stocks including mutual funds and ETFs.
Last Week:
Market conditions are Bullish in a Neutral Market as of 2016-04-15. This means traders and investors should consider trading with a Neutral or Bullish bias by buying stocks and setting tight stops.
The Momentum Indicator is currently at indicating a bullish trend in stocks. Risk of a trend reversal is low. This means the current short term bullish trend is likely to continue.
Top Relative Timing – Industries (in order of timing)
Machinery (Const/Mining)
Steel (Basic)
Building (Painting Prds)
ETFs (Sector/Materials)
Office (EQUIP)
Top Relative Timing – Sectors (in order of timing)
Steel
Office
Mining
Metal Products
Building
Stocks to consider based on dividend yield
Dow
Verizon (VZ) 4.40 %
Chevron (CVX) 4.40 %
Caterpillar (CAT) 3.89 %
Pfizer (PFE) 3.69 %
Percent change, 200-day moving average
Caterpillar (CAT) 14.59 %
United Tech (UTX) 10.38 %
McDonald’s (MCD) 9.91 %
IBM (IBM) 9.70 %
New 52-week High (random selected)
Becton Dickinson (BDX)
Heartland Payment (HPY)
Masco (MAS)
Virgin America (VA)
Zacks Investment Research
Bull of the Day – Apr 15
Thor Industries (THO)
The company has an impressive record of profitability. They have been profitable every year since their founding in 1980, so that’s 35 consecutive years of profitability in different business cycles. They have grown their earnings consistently, with 5-year CAGR of 17.2% for net income and 17.1% for diluted EPS. They have also been returning increasing amounts of capital to shareholders via dividends with a CAGR of 4.6% for dividends.
Daniel Iuculano, AAMS CMFC
Accredited Asset Management Specialist
Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor
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