Investment Ideas Bi-Monthly – Monday Feb. 15, 2016
Investment Ideas
(Monday – Feb. 15, 2016)
A bi-monthly forecast and investment ideas covering a range of technical and fundamental analysis securities to assist you in when to buy and when to sell a specific security.
This is informational only and is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, but a guide to start the research process before making any stock purchase or a sell recommendation.
The information provided is based on timely fundamental, technical analysis or both. Technical analysis can change hour by hour; tick by tick so keep that in mind as to the timeliness of the information especially if you are reading this days or even weeks later.
The market trend as of this past Friday Feb. 12 was Bearish, the price trend has moved Downward though the 20 day moving average and 20 has moved below the 50 day average .
The primary trend is Down over the past five days, the longer trend (two weeks) is Down. MACD remains Negative. The S&P 500 is negative YTD at -8.51 %.
The US markets are closed today 2/15, however the Futures are up significantly this morning. With the trend dropping most of the past month or so, I suggest you wait it out for now unless you are trading inverse ETFs or shorting.
Wilshire index Price: (Total Wilshire 5000 value divided by 5000)
Feb 12 $3.805
Feb 05 $3.849
Jan 29 $3.985
Jan 22 – $3.918
Jan 15 – $3.867
Dec 31 – $4.234
Dec 18 – $4.251
Dec 04 – $4.336
Wilshire 5000 Index
Jan 02 2016 – $4.234
MACD is a simple momentum indicator. Buy signals occur when the black line crosses over the red line. Sell signals happen when the black line crosses beneath the red line.
3 types of analysis.
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Technical analysis is the study of past market prices and trading volume. It will keep you trading with the market, rather than against it.
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Fundamental analysis is the study of business quality and value. It will help you pinpoint great businesses at great prices… and avoid bad businesses at inflated prices.
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Sentiment analysis is the study of the opinions of market participants. You can use it to make sure you’re not standing with the crowd just as it’s about to get dumped overboard.
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Market Watch
Trailing Stop Loss
Don’t forget to place a trailing stop loss on all your positions as you make the purchases. Depending on your risk tolerance place a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 25 percent for mid to large cap stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds. Consider even large percentage for small cap stocks including mutual funds and ETFs.
Last Week:
Market conditions are Bearish in a Corrective Market as of 2016-02-12. This means traders and investors should consider trading with a Bearish bias by shorting stocks, buying inverse-ETF’s or buying put options.
The Momentum Indicator is currently indicating a bearish trend in stocks. Risk of a short term trend reversal is low. This means the current bearish short term trend is likely to continue.
Top Relative Timing – Industries (in order of timing)
Mining (Gold/Silver)
ETF (short)
Utility (Water Supply)
Building (Maint & Svs)
Food (Meat Products)
Top Relative Timing – Sectors (in order of timing)
Mining
Utility
Market
Food
Apparel
Stocks to consider based on dividend yield
S&P 500 Index
Frontier Comm (FTR) 9.91 %
HCP Inc (HCP) 8.76 %
Seagate Tech (STX) 8.43 %
Noble Corp (NE) 8.15 %
Percent change, 200-day moving average
Newmont Mining (NEM) 42.20 %
Keurig (GMCR) 35.50 %
Tyson Foods (TSN) 26.89 %
Mattel (MAT) 24.48 %
Stocks going up fast
Anglogold Ashanti (AU)
GoldCorp (GG)
Juno Therap (JUNO)
Nord American Tankers (NAT)
New 52-week High (random selected)
Randgold (GOLD)
Realty Income (O)
Partnerre (PRE)
Waste Connections (WCN)
Zacks Investment Research
Bull of the Day – Feb. 12
DHT Holdings (DHT)
While OPEC, Russia, Iran, and the U.S.A continue to pump out oil above the amount demanded there will continue to be an oversupply of the commodity. This only helps the VLCC companies to move the oil from port to port. Further, with the guaranteed rates locked in for the next 2 years, the company will have a consistent revenue stream.
Daniel Iuculano, AAMS CMFC
Accredited Asset Management Specialist
Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor
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