Investment Ideas Bi-Monthly – Monday Jan. 04, 2016
Investment Ideas
(Monday – Jan. 04, 2016)
A bi-monthly forecast and investment ideas covering a range of technical and fundamental analysis securities to assist you in when to buy and when to sell a specific security.
This is informational only and is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, but a guide to start the research process before making any stock purchase or a sell recommendation.
The information provided is based on timely fundamental, technical analysis or both. Technical analysis can change hour by hour; tick by tick so keep that in mind as to the timeliness of the information especially if you are reading this days or even weeks later.
The market trend as of this past Friday Dec. 31 was Bearish, the price trend has moved Downward though the 20 day moving average and 20 has moved below the 50 day average .
The primary trend is Down over the past five days, the longer trend (two weeks) is Down. MACD remains Negative. The S&P 500 is positive at 1.38 for the year %.
The broader market Wilshire 5000 fell during 2015 and was negative for the year.
First trading for the new year (2016) and the markets are looking pretty awful with the Dow down more than 300 points. I suggest you stay on the side lines for now.
Wilshire index Price: (Total Wilshire 5000 value divided by 5000)
Dec 31 – $4.234
Dec 18 – $4.251
Dec 04 – $4.336
Nov 27 – $4.352
Nov 20 – $4.336
Nov 13 – $4.209
Nov 06 – $4.373
Oct 30 – $4.330
Oct 23 – $4.323
Oct 17 – $4.256
Oct 09 – $4.232
Oct 02 – $4.091
Sep 25 – $4.063
Sep 18 – $4.136
Sep 11 – $4.138
Jan 02 2015 – $4.333
MACD is a simple momentum indicator. Buy signals occur when the black line crosses over the red line. Sell signals happen when the black line crosses beneath the red line.
3 types of analysis.
•
Technical analysis is the study of past market prices and trading volume. It will keep you trading with the market, rather than against it.
•
Fundamental analysis is the study of business quality and value. It will help you pinpoint great businesses at great prices… and avoid bad businesses at inflated prices.
•
Sentiment analysis is the study of the opinions of market participants. You can use it to make sure you’re not standing with the crowd just as it’s about to get dumped overboard.
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Market Watch
Trailing Stop Loss
Don’t forget to place a trailing stop loss on all your positions as you make the purchases. Depending on your risk tolerance place a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 25 percent for mid to large cap stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds. Consider even large percentage for small cap stocks including mutual funds and ETFs.
Last Week:
Market conditions are Mildly bearish in a Neutral Market as of 2015-12-31. This means traders and investors should consider trading with a bearish bias by raising stop levels on winners and selling losers.
The Momentum Indicator is currently indicating short term Non-trending environment in stocks. This means the stock market is stalling in the current short term trend.
The Breadth Indicator is currently indicating the breadth of stocks moving higher is neutral. Risk of a trend reversal low. This means the current trend is likely to continue.
The Sentiment Indicator is currently indicating the sentiment in the stock market is showing high complacency. Risk of a long term trend reversal is low. This means the current long term trend is likely to continue.
Top Relative Timing – Industries (in order of timing)
ETFs (Sector/ Biotech)
Healthcare (HMO)
Food (Sugar/Flour/Grain)
Instruments (Scientific)
ETFs (Sector\Health)
Top Relative Timing – Sectors (in order of timing)
Instruments
Bank
Aerospace & Defense
Internet
Paper
Stocks to consider based on dividend yield
S&P 500
Oneok (OKE) 9.98 %
Williams Company (WMB) 9.96 %
Windstream (WIN) 9.32 %
Frontier Comm (FTR) 8.99 %
Percent change, 200-day moving average
Keurig Green Mt (GMCR) 41.70 %
Airgas (ARG) 29.09 %
First Solar (FSLR) 27.87 %
Nvidia (NVDA) 27.00 %
Stocks going up fast
Baytex Energy (BTE)
Range Resource (RRC)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
Vidal (VICL)
New 52 week High ( random selected)
None
Zacks Investment Research
Bull of the Day – Dec 31
Angie’s List (ANGI)
Angie’s List operates a local services marketplace and consumer review site. The company provides marketplace to research, shop for, and purchase local services for home, health, and automotive service needs. Angie’s List was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Daniel Iuculano, AAMS CMFC
Accredited Asset Management Specialist
Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor
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