Investment Ideas Bi-Monthly – Monday Dec. 21, 2015
Investment Ideas
(Monday – Dec. 21 2015)
A bi-monthly forecast and investment ideas covering a range of technical and fundamental analysis securities to assist you in when to buy and when to sell a specific security.
This is informational only and is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, but a guide to start the research process before making any stock purchase or a sell recommendation.
The information provided is based on timely fundamental, technical analysis or both. Technical analysis can change hour by hour; tick by tick so keep that in mind as to the timeliness of the information especially if you are reading this days or even weeks later.
The market trend as of this past Friday Dec. 18 was Bearish, the price trend has moved Downward though the 20 day moving average and 20 has moved below the 50 day average .
The primary trend is Down over the past five days, the longer trend (two weeks) is Down. MACD remains Negative. YTD the S&P 500 is negative at -0.60 %.
Futures are up triple digits this morning, wait and see how the day develops before buying any long positions.
Wilshire index Price: (Total Wilshire 5000 value divided by 5000)
Dec 18 – $4.151
Dec 04 – $4.336
Nov 27 – $4.352
Nov 20 – $4.336
Nov 13 – $4.209
Nov 06 – $4.373
Oct 30 – $4.330
Oct 23 – $4.323
Oct 17 – $4.256
Oct 09 – $4.232
Oct 02 – $4.091
Sep 25 – $4.063
Sep 18 – $4.136
Sep 11 – $4.138
Wilshire 5000 Index
Jan 02 2015 – $4.333
MACD is a simple momentum indicator. Buy signals occur when the black line crosses over the red line. Sell signals happen when the black line crosses beneath the red line.
3 types of analysis.
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Technical analysis is the study of past market prices and trading volume. It will keep you trading with the market, rather than against it.
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Fundamental analysis is the study of business quality and value. It will help you pinpoint great businesses at great prices… and avoid bad businesses at inflated prices.
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Sentiment analysis is the study of the opinions of market participants. You can use it to make sure you’re not standing with the crowd just as it’s about to get dumped overboard.
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Market Watch
Trailing Stop Loss
Don’t forget to place a trailing stop loss on all your positions as you make the purchases. Depending on your risk tolerance place a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 25 percent for mid to large cap stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds. Consider even large percentage for small cap stocks including mutual funds and ETFs.
Last Week:
Market conditions are Bearish in a Neutral Market as of 2015-12-18. This means traders and investors should consider trading with a Bearish bias by shorting stocks, buying inverse-ETF’s or buying put options.
The Momentum Indicator is currently indicating a bearish trend in stocks, but with extreme short term bullish risk. This means the risk of the current bearish short term trend reversing or stalling is very high.
Top Relative Timing – Industries (in order of timing)
ETFs (Sector/ Biotech)
Drug (Wholesale/Distrib)
Food (Sugar/Floue/Grain)
Healthcare (HMO)
ETFs (Sector\Telecom)
Top Relative Timing – Sectors (in order of timing)
Instruments
Bank
Internet
Paper
Aerospace & Defense
Stocks to consider based on dividend yield
Dow
Verizon (VZ) 4.96 %
Chevron (CVX) 4.77 %
Caterpillar (CAT) 4.73 %
IBM (IBM) 3.85 %
Percent change, 200-day moving average
McDonald (MCD) 13.81 %
Microsoft (MSFT) 12.91 %
GE (GE) 10.63 %
Intel (INTC) 8.46 %
Stocks going up fast
Nobilis Health (HLTH)
Plug Power (PLUG)
Renesola (SOL)
Walter Investment Management (WAC)
New 52 week High ( random selected)
Bona Film Group (BONA)
Five9 (FIVN)
WGL Holdings (WGL)
Tal Education (XRS)
Zacks Investment Research
Bull of the Day – Dec 21
Photronics (PLAB)
The most recent quarter saw the company a big improvement in its margin profile. Gross margins improved to 31.5% in the quarter, a big move from the 21.4% level we saw in the year ago period. Operating margin expanded to 19.2% compared to the 7.5% seen in the year-ago period.
Daniel Iuculano, AAMS CMFC
Accredited Asset Management Specialist
Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor
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