Investment Ideas Bi-Monthly – Monday Jan. 18, 2016
Investment Ideas
(Monday – Jan. 18, 2016)
A bi-monthly forecast and investment ideas covering a range of technical and fundamental analysis securities to assist you in when to buy and when to sell a specific security.
This is informational only and is not meant as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, but a guide to start the research process before making any stock purchase or a sell recommendation.
The information provided is based on timely fundamental, technical analysis or both. Technical analysis can change hour by hour; tick by tick so keep that in mind as to the timeliness of the information especially if you are reading this days or even weeks later.
The market trend as of this past Friday Jan. 15 was Bearish, the price trend has moved Downward though the 20 day moving average and 20 has moved below the 50 day average .
The primary trend is Down over the past five days, the longer trend (two weeks) is Down. MACD remains Negative. The S&P 500 is negative YTD at -7.93 %.
Markets in the US are closed 1/18/16, however the futures are trading down. Inverse ETFs would be the positions I would consider trading short term.
Wilshire index Price: (Total Wilshire 5000 value divided by 5000)
Jan 15 – $3.867
Dec 31 – $4.234
Dec 18 – $4.251
Dec 04 – $4.336
Nov 27 – $4.352
Nov 20 – $4.336
Nov 13 – $4.209
Nov 06 – $4.373
Wilshire 5000 Index
Jan 02 2016 – $4.234
MACD is a simple momentum indicator. Buy signals occur when the black line crosses over the red line. Sell signals happen when the black line crosses beneath the red line.
3 types of analysis.
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Technical analysis is the study of past market prices and trading volume. It will keep you trading with the market, rather than against it.
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Fundamental analysis is the study of business quality and value. It will help you pinpoint great businesses at great prices… and avoid bad businesses at inflated prices.
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Sentiment analysis is the study of the opinions of market participants. You can use it to make sure you’re not standing with the crowd just as it’s about to get dumped overboard.
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Market Watch
Trailing Stop Loss
Don’t forget to place a trailing stop loss on all your positions as you make the purchases. Depending on your risk tolerance place a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 25 percent for mid to large cap stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds. Consider even large percentage for small cap stocks including mutual funds and ETFs.
Last Week:
Market conditions are Bearish in a Bear Market as of 2016-01-15. This means traders and investors should consider trading with a Bearish bias by shorting stocks, buying inverse-ETF’s or buying put options.
The Momentum Indicator is currently indicating a bearish trend in stocks, but with extreme short term bullish risk. This means the risk of the current bearish short term trend reversing or stalling is very high.
Top Relative Timing – Industries (in order of timing)
ETFs (Short)
ETFs (Fixed Inc/ Treasury)
Utility (Water Supply)
ETFs (Fixed Inc/ Other)
Healthcare (HMO)
Top Relative Timing – Sectors (in order of timing)
Market
Utility
Bank
Instruments
ETFs
Stocks to consider based on dividend yield
Nasdaq 100
Seagate Tech (STX) 7.85 %
Garmin (GRMN) 6.27 %
Mattel (MAT) 5.92 %
Western Dig (WDC) 4.23 %
Percent change, 200-day moving average
Keurig Green Mt (GMCR) 40.70 %
Kraft (KRFT) 17.31 %
KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 10.72 %
SanDisk (SNDK) 10.10 %
Stocks going up fast
Hooper Holmes (HH)
Tuesday Morning (TUES)
Wingstop (WING)
Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES)
New 52 week High ( random selected)
Surgical Care (SCAI)
Symetra Financial (SYA)
Zacks Investment Research
Bull of the Day – Jan 15
Celgene (CELG)
Oversold conditions in stocks provide vast opportunities for investors over the long term. Due to the market negativity this quarter, companies that don’t meet or exceed earnings expectations, will be punished. Now is the time to look for the companies that will counter the market trend and benefit on any market rally.
Daniel Iuculano, AAMS CMFC
Accredited Asset Management Specialist
Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor
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